Sudden stops
determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913
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Author
Contributions
- Cavallo, Alberto F. - Contributor
- Meissner, Christopher M. - Contributor
- National Bureau of Economic Research. - Contributor
Publication
2007 - National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass, Massachusetts
Language
English
Word Count
8,750 words, Guess
Page Count
35 pages
Identifiers
- Library of Congress Control Number2007616620
- OCLC Control Number180194832
- Open LibraryOL17636141M
Classifications
- LCCHB1
Description
Using a sample of 20 emerging countries from 1880 to 1913, we study the determinants and output effects of sudden stops in capital inflows during an era of intensified globalization. We find that higher levels of original sin (hard currency debt to total debt) and large current account deficits associated with reliance on foreign capital greatly increased the likelihood of experiencing a sudden stop. Trade openness and stronger commitment to the gold standard had the opposite effect. These results are robust for many sudden stop definitions used in the literature. Finally, we use a treatment effects model to show that after controlling for endogeneity sudden stops have a strong negative association with growth in per capita output. We also show that banking, currency and debt crises that were preceded by a sudden stop have much greater negative relation with growth than in the absence of a sudden stop.
Subjects
Topics
Series Statement
- NBER working paper series -- no. 13489.
- Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 13489.
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