Models of conflict, with explicit representation of command and control capabilities and vulnerabilities

Description

This report describes dynamic combat models that reflect the effect of information flows together with attrition capability upon combat progress and outcome. Command and Control assets for each participant are modeled as endowed with the capacity to guide combat; C2 is also vulnerable in that it may be deliberately targetted and reduced in effectiveness. Physical attrition is modeled first by a deterministic rate process (Lanchesterian in nature), secondly by a stochastic process related to the first by ideas related to those of stochastic difference and differential equations. The models are best exercised and explored on an interactive computer display. A FORTRAN program exists for this purpose, with displays of hypothetical historical combat outcomes new appearing in tabular form. Graphical displays will be provided in future work. It seems likely that this model simulation can be developed into a gaming tool, very conveniently playable by two persons who can elect various strategies for force allocation, play the game, and learn from the results. An elaboration of the model may serve as a means for assessing the importance of increased effectiveness of equipment, either with respect to firing rate and accuracy or time for information flow. (Author)

Subjects