The yield curve, recessions and the credibility of the monetary regime

Description

"This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across different monetary regimes. In accord with our proposed theory, regimes with low credibility (high persistence of inflation) tend to have better predictability"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Subjects

Series Statement

• NBER working paper series ;
• working paper 10431
• Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;
• working paper no. 10431.

Links

• http://papers.nber.org/papers/W10431
• URL

Other Editions

• The yield curve, recessions and the credibility of the monetary regime: long run evidence 1875-1997Electronic resourceNational Bureau of Economic Research2004-01-01
• The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regimeElectronic resourceFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2004-01-01