Outlook to 2060 for world forests and forest industries

Alternate Titles

• Technical document supporting Forest Service 2010 RPA assessment

Description

Four RPA scenarios corresponding with scenarios from the Third and Fourth Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were simulated with the Global Forest Products Model to project forest area, volume, products demand and supply, international trade, prices, and value added up to 2060 for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, South America, and selected countries. Scenario A1B presents a 5.5-fold increase in world fuelwood use that leads to high prices of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, driven by especially strong demand in Asia for large imports from South America and Europe. World roundwood consumption reaches 11.2 billion m³ in 2060, exceeding the increment of forests, particularly in Asia. Even under scenarios A2 and B2, the harvest in Asia is unsustainable. However, scenario A1B and a low fuelwood demand lead to a global harvest of 3.6 billion m³ only and to a sustainable forest volume. The world consumption of manufactured wood products grows modestly under most scenarios, with slight changes in prices. Consumption and value added in industries increases more rapidly in Asia, due to the fast economic growth of China and India in all scenarios. As a result, Asia is a large importer of industrial roundwood from South America and Europe and of paper and paperboard from Europe and North America.

Subjects

Series Statement

• General technical report SRS -- 151

Links

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Other Editions

• Outlook to 2060 for world forests and forest industries: a technical document supporting Forest Service 2010 RPA assessment[electronic resource] :U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, FOrest Service, Southern Research Station2012-01-01
• Outlook to 2060 for world forests and forest industriesU.S. Dept. of Agriculture, FOrest Service, Southern Research Station2012