The use and abuse of "real-time" data in economic forecasting

Description

"We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is superior to that obtained using conventional estimation and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus"--Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas web site.

Subjects

Links

• http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2000/index.html
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